Sports Betting, whether online gambling or live betting, has an attractive allure. Place a small wager and win a huge pot? Who wouldn’t want that? But the reality of sports gambling can be drastically different.
Expectations vs. Reality is a key thing to keep in mind.
Yes, it is entirely possible to place a small wager on a long shot and score big winnings, but it’s also rather unlikely. There is a whole community based around sports gambling with analysts, predictors, bettors of all kinds, probability matchups, and statistics that span more than you would think.
There is a reason for all this: sports gambling is a fickle matter. Sports games are not fixed, they are not predetermined. The outcome can change, no matter how likely a given scenario is or how sure 99% of the audience is of the result. The human factor is at hand.
A player on a team, say the quarterback for an NFL team, is the best in the league and maybe even carried their team all the way to the Super Bowl. It’s smart money to bet on his team. The likelihood that he’ll put up a great stat line and lead his team to victory is high, but in sports, and even more so in betting, nothing is guaranteed.
That player can have an off day. They can have a bad game. The opposing team could have the best game of their lives. There are too many factors for a sure thing to ever be a sure thing. That is the harsh reality of sports betting: anything can happen.
The other harsh reality, and equally true, is sports gambling features one prime contradiction: even though anything can happen, there is always an outcome that is far more likely than anything else. That outcome, more often than not, is the reality that takes place. That is why sports betting exists.
There are noticeable and definable probabilities, and those probabilities influence the world of sports betting. Those certain definable chances are why analysts and predictors have notable positions. It’s why people pay attention to the over/under of a bet.
It’s always more likely that the better team or player will win. It’s not a guarantee, but it is the outcome with the highest chance of taking place.
On the other end of that, this is also why the long shot bet, or outsider, exists. There have been plenty of instances of the underdog or the team or player with the lowest chance to succeed defying the odds and winning—fattening the pockets of those who took the risk.
But the keyword here is risk. Placing a substantial bet on a long shot is the riskiest move to make, but it’s also the one that could potentially yield the biggest gain. That excitement, that anticipation is what drives people to bet.
The rush of winning, of walking away from the table with more than you arrived with, is exhilarating. It’s vindicating. It’s fulfilling. But it’s also crushing when the likely outcome takes place, and the long shot fails.